A cycle implies mean reversion. A wall implies a date. 2026 commercial real-estate maturities are dates. Refinancing them at 2021 coupons is not a base case; it is fan fiction.
The intelligence mistake is to treat occupancy, cap rates, and CMBS spreads as separate columns. They are one object: can this building’s cash pay the new coupon without a sponsor check, and if not, who eats the extension.
Tokenized real-estate decks will try to outrun that sentence. UnyKorn will not. The contracts pack is notes and pointers, not a magic refinance.